The City of Austin Watershed Protection Department (WPD) is committed to protecting and improving the health and safety of the watersheds under its jurisdiction. To achieve this, the current WPD strategic plan encompasses 101 diverse solutions, which can be grouped into four broad categories: 1) policy and regulations, 2) programs promoting awareness and pro-environmental actions, 3) asset management practices adopted by the department, and 4) the construction of engineered projects. Currently, the department lacks a comprehensive understanding of the quantifiable impacts of each solution to address the different dimensions of watershed health. We have developed and piloted a forecasting method to provide interim performance metrics of the solutions in the strategic plan.
For example, street sweeping is implemented to reduce sediment in runoff from entering Austin’s creeks. Yet, the measurable effectiveness of this practice remains unknown. A sample question is what percent of the sediment in runoff that reaches the creeks in Austin will be reduced by the street sweeping program on an annual basis? And does this practice affect any other metrics of watershed health, such as localized flood risk?
A diverse, interdepartmental team of WPD employees was trained in forecasting methods and mitigating systemic biases. They were tasked with estimating the change in watershed health metrics for a range of strategic plan solutions. We present an overview of the selection criteria and training process for the forecasting team, as well as preliminary results of estimated performance outcomes for select solutions.